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A stable Tunisia remains critical for security in North Africa as a whole. Yet its proximity to Libya leaves it exposed to dangerous spillover, as shown by March 2016’s deadly attack by ISIS militants on the border town of Ben Guerdane. Even with ISIS’ relative decline in the Levant and Libya, there is a risk that some of the thousands of Tunisian foreign fighters could return and exploit simmering social unrest. Local elections planned for May 2018, the first since the 2011 revolution, will reveal whether the stability that has endured since the 2013 political deal between Tunisia’s two main parties can hold. Crisis Group works to identify conflict triggers ahead of the coming elections, including tensions over economic and socio-regional inequality, and aims to broaden the political consensus established in 2013.

CrisisWatch Tunisia

Unchanged Situation

Upsurge in political tensions marked tenth anniversary of popular uprising which toppled former President Ben Ali. Dispute between centre-left Democratic Trend (DT) and populist Karama coalition MPs 7 Dec escalated into brawl in parliament, leaving one DT deputy wounded; violence reportedly erupted after DT MPs accused Karama deputy of making misogynistic comment and called for investigation. Five major parties in parliament same day called for parliamentary immunity to be lifted to allow prosecution of Karama MPs involved in violence. DT leader Mohamed Abbou 9 Dec called for dissolution of parliament and urged President Saïed to deploy army to protect strategic sites to avoid “state collapse”. MP from second largest parliamentary group Qalb Tounes 10 Dec accused those who “try to dissolve parliament” of “coup d’Etat”. Main trade union and political powerbroker UGTT 15 Dec called for national dialogue to prevent deepening of political, social and economic crisis; following meeting with UGTT, Saïed 30 Dec committed to launch national dialogue in coming weeks “to correct the revolution that has deviated from its goals.” Parliament Speaker and Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party leader Rached Ghannouchi next day declared support for UGTT initiative. Authorities 24 Dec arrested Qalb Tounes leader Nabil Karoui on charges of money laundering and tax evasion. On tenth anniversary of beginning of popular uprising against Ben Ali, protesters disillusioned with political class 17 Dec gathered outside parliament in capital Tunis to ask for assembly’s dissolution. Security forces 17 Dec dispersed sit-in of families of those killed and wounded during 2010-2011 uprising at govt square in Tunis. Military same day fired warning shots to disperse protesters asking for jobs and local development as they were blockading trans-Tunisian gas pipeline facilities in Awlad Marzoug town, Kasserine province (centre). Islamic State (ISIS)-affiliated militants 20 Dec kidnapped and beheaded shepherd in Jebel Salloum area, Kasserine province near Algerian border.

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Reports & Briefings

In The News

23 Jul 2020
There have been extremely difficult moments in Tunisia, where the country seemed to risk tumbling into the worst scenario. But there have always been politicians and unions keeping channels of discussion open. Voice of America

Michaël Béchir Ayari

Senior Analyst, Tunisia
16 Feb 2020
Le vote [du parti islamiste Ennahda] reflète les tensions au sein du parti. Notamment concernant la succession de Rached Ghannouchi à sa tête qui doit se décider lors d’un congrès cette année. Le Croix

Michaël Béchir Ayari

Senior Analyst, Tunisia
26 Jan 2020
If the [Tunisian] government (...) can’t channel populist concerns about sovereignty, there risks to be a lot of instability and protests. VOA

Michaël Béchir Ayari

Senior Analyst, Tunisia
25 Feb 2018
There is tension between the [Tunisian] police and the judiciary [about ISIS militants]. The police say it’s because the judges are terrorists themselves. BuzzFeed

Michaël Béchir Ayari

Senior Analyst, Tunisia
14 Jan 2018
There is a fertile ground for social anger [in Tunisia] that needs to be taken into account. What will be interesting in the next days is how the youth movements will structure themselves. The New York Times

Michaël Béchir Ayari

Senior Analyst, Tunisia

Latest Updates

Tunisia in 2019: a Pivotal Year?

Divisions within Tunisia’s political leadership are preventing the government from addressing the country’s political and socio-economic challenges. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2019 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to support measures that will prevent further polarisation.

Also available in Français

Tunisia’s Political Polarisation Worsens after First Big Terrorist Attack in Two Years

A 29 October suicide bombing in the heart of Tunis dealt a blow to much-improved security since the last violent jihadist attacks in 2015-16. In this Q&A, our Senior Analyst for Tunisia Michael B. Ayari says it has also hammered a new wedge into Islamist-secularist political divides.

Also available in Français

Tunisie : dépasser les querelles pour restaurer la confiance

Le maintien ou le départ du chef du gouvernement tunisien, Youssef Chahed, est depuis plusieurs semaines au cœur d’une crise politique. Si les principales forces politiques et syndicales échouent à trouver un compromis, la formation d’un gouvernement dit de technocrates pourrait permettre de renforcer la confiance et d’apaiser les rancœurs. 

Also available in English

Strengthening Institutions in Tunisia

Tunisia is in limbo between two different forms of government, deepening socio-economic difficulties for many citizens and putting the country’s security at risk. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018, Crisis Group proposes that the EU and its member states use their influence to persuade Tunisia actively to promote economic growth and speed up government restructuring.

On the Politics behind Tunisia’s Protests

Analysis on the politics behind the scenes of the ongoing protests in Tunisia.

Originally published in The Arabist

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